Emil Gunnarsson
Cardiac surgery mortality prediction using artificial neural networks and ensemble weighting methods
Master Thesis in Theoretical Physics
Abstract:
Artificial neural networks are trained to predict mortality
for patients undergoing heart surgery. A database with
patients from Lund is used for training and test. The results,
presented as ROC areas, are compared to the commonly used risk
model EuroSCORE and to linear models trained on the Lund
database. No statistically significant improvement is found
compared with EuroSCORE but it is confirmed that neural
networks out-perform the linear models. It is proposed that
combining different good risk models may lead to improved
generalization performance. Also, different ways of weighting
ensembles of neural networks are explored. Remarkably, no
increase in performance is found by optimizing the weights and
a possible explanation is provided.
LU TP 06-46